The Game Is Up
Media is full of stories of people who have lost their retirement funds thanks to unscrupulous investment managers and greedy executives. For a taste of what is to come for rank and file workers, watch this Frontline piece on retirement, filmed in 2006. We have just begun to see how big this asset bubble is and how it will impact us. I predict that retirees will only get 10 cents on the dollar (late 2007 investment statement dollar) for both defined benefit and defined contribution programs -- indeed, both types of programs may disappear completely. As a side note, the commercial real estate downturn has only just begun its fall and it will fall for at least 5 years.
One idea that may come to pass is that of a "safe" bank that the government either owns or highly regulates. All other investment vehicles would be on their own with respect to government backing. Investor beware. This may happen just as soon as the government figures out that they are throwing money at a problem that can't be solved. When will the government back off? When they are into this to the tune of $5 trillion? $10 trillion?
I'm reminded of those exercises in trust that people play at corporate retreats. You know, the one where you fall and trust your colleagues to catch you. Unfortunately, the system that we currently operate under will not catch you. It was and is based on greed rather than trust. A system that will catch you can be devised, but it will look nothing like the retirement system of today. Indeed, it may not even be based on retirement. It will likely be based on engagement -- engagement with all that surrounds you till the day you die. And investors will likely demand that it be easy to understand.
The Smart Paradox
I recently watched and listened to a portion of the presentations at this conference. How can we be so individually smart -- as all these presenters appear to be and this is just a fraction of the smart people in academia -- but yet so dumb as a society? Is there some way to harness this intelligence in coming up with a solution to our human predicament?
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